My Psychic Guess
As you may have guessed, I do not really have psychic abilities (although I might be “sickic”). Regardless, I can still tell you which list is which.
For each list, I want you to count the length of the longest string of “X”s of “O”s. So, on the random list I used as the example, XOXOXOOXOXXOXXXOXOOXXOXOO, there are 3 “X”s in a row. That is the longest string. Go ahead, count your lists.
Almost always, the “coin flip” list has a longer string. Quite often as many as 5, 6, or 7 “X”s or “O”s in a row. These patterns are actually what it means to be random. Randomness is not alternating back and forth. Randomness has inherent patterns. These random patterns mean nothing. They are just random. When your iPod Shuffle (which plays music randomly) plays three songs in a row by the same artist, this is not a software flaw, this is randomness.
Unfortunately, as human beings, we like to find meaning in everything. Even things that are just random events or statistically probable eventualities.
A friend recently told me that they were sitting on a plane next to a stranger. She decided to start up a conversation. Eventually she discovered that this stranger was in fact the uncle of a woman who is married to a guy she knew 20 years ago. She asked me, “Wow, what are the odds of that?” Um, the odds are pretty good – eventually. How many strangers have you sat next to that ended up remaining strangers? Of course, with the “six degrees of separation,” if you try hard enough, you can find some connection to every person you meet.
I have colleagues who wait for a sign (from above?) before making major decisions. I recall one story of a friend who was thinking of trading in her run-of-the-mill car for an expensive German sports car. But she wanted a sign before she was willing to make the investment. A few days later, she was in an accident, and her car was totaled. That turned out to be one hell of a sign. I won’t say that she subconsciously crashed her car (I’m not that Freudian), but she could have at least asked for a less violent sign.
Synchronistic events can be explained with mathematics, probability, and psychology. But as humans, we strive for meaning. The thought that we are all marionettes in some cosmic puppet show seems to be comforting to many. It means that when we want something, we only need to “attract” it and it will happen. This reminds me of the musical, “The Music Man,” where students are taught to play their instruments using the “think method.” All they needed to do was think about the music and they would be able to play their instruments like a well trained musician. Of course, it was all a scam.
For many people, believing that we are in total control of our destiny – and that we need to take the appropriate actions – can be frightening. For me, I find this freeing. It means I am free to choose MY path through life, and that there are no pre-ordained purposes. It means that success and happiness are my responsibility — the result of my own actions, beliefs, choices, and behaviors. It means that I am control of my destiny – and I am never the victim of circumstances. It means that the universe is never conspiring against me – or overtly helping me.
I recently watched a dozen episodes of a Penn & Teller’s TV show, “Bullshit.” I love these guys. They are funny. They are great magicians. And they are skeptics. They believe that unless something can be proven scientifically, it is probably not true. For example, they believe that psychics and mediums (people who speak to the dead) are, well, bullsh*t (they don’t call them scam artists for legal reasons).
For fun, I am going to convention of skeptics in Las Vegas January 18 – 21. Penn & Teller will be there, along with Adam Savage from the TV show Mythbusters, and James Randi (a paranormal debunker). If you are going, be sure to find me there. For more information, go to http://www.randi.org/amazingmeeting/
Although I typically use a skeptical engineering lens to view the world, I am open to other, more metaphysical perspectives. Maybe there is more to the universe than meets the eye. However, that does not mean you should abdicate responsibility and give credit to “the universe” for your successes. This only serves to belittle your own abilities and reduce potential opportunities. Instead, get a clear sense of direction – not a specific destination – and then meander with purpose. When you do this, YOUR actions – whether they are conscious and subconscious – will manifest great success.